Silver says 25% chance of Romney win; Twitter says 100% chance of mockery

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http://twitter.com/#!/AceofSpadesHQ/status/255459166259396608

There is nothing like a good Nate Silver drubbing. And Ace of Spades does so in swoon-worthy fashion. As Twitchy reported, the latest Pew poll has Mitt Romney up by four among likely voters. And it’s not just Andrew Sullivan who is bursting into tears.

I'll have what he's having –> @fivethirtyeight

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 8, 2012

Indeed. Nate Silver of The New York Times is smoking something wacky, clearly, as he swiftly clutched his pearls over the Pew poll last night.

According to Twitter, Barack Obama went from a huge favorite at 1 PM to a huge underdog at 4 PM. Get a grip, people.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 8, 2012

How much difference did the Pew poll make? We had Romney win % rising to 24.4% from 21.6% today. Without Pew, he'd have made no gain at all.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 8, 2012

So the Pew poll really is a huge data point for Romney. But his polling today was pretty mediocre without it.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 8, 2012

[new article] Oct. 8: A Great Poll for Romney, in Perspective http://t.co/6R4aSUy4

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 9, 2012

Breitbart.com does an amazing job of destroying Mr. Silver’s attempt at a spot as captain of the Obama propaganda cheerleading squad.

NYT's Nate Silver Exposed as Obama Propagandist http://t.co/B2M3GVR4 via @BreitbartNews

— John Nolte (@NolteNC) October 9, 2012

Nate Silver Becomes ObamaMedia's Baghdad Bob of Polls –> http://t.co/ZRXZRJc6

— John Nolte (@NolteNC) October 9, 2012

From Breitbart.com

And it doesn’t matter that today Nate Silver jumped the shark with his ridiculous 25.2% prediction of a Romney victory. Because Silver doesn’t exist in order to give anyone intelligent analysis. He’s there to make Obama boosterism look intelligent and thoughtful and fact-based, no matter how ridiculous and counter-intuitive and fantastic the end result.

Seriously, read the whole thing.

Snake oil salesman Silver continued today.

It's possible that Romney's bounce is fading slightly. Also possible that it was larger than we thought originally. Not mutually exclusive.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 9, 2012

Oh, cupcake. Aren’t you just precious? Put down the stats and stuff and hold onto that ledge.

Ace of Spades gave Silver, and his “models” the business, as only he can. With lines like “my model indicates Obama is The Batman,”Ace of Spades pounds Nate Silver and his sad Pew poll spin.

However the Pew Poll is obviously crank, as it disagrees with my forecasting model. Discounting that poll and others I don't like–no change

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Thus, a more accurate statement of the race at the moment is that Romney is mired in the sub-0.0002% range.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Discounting certain polls as incompatible with my model, and adding in the Finnageler's Constant, I have Obama with 143% chance to win Ohio.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

A 143% chance of winning Ohio means that there will be a "spillover" effect into neighboring states like Michigan and Iowa.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Adding this "spillover" effect into the mix, Obama leads comfortably in Michigan, 165% to Romney's -65%. Similar trends appear in IA.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

According to my forecasting model, there is a 92.33% chance that Ann Romney will make a pass at Barack Obama at some point.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

My model suggests an 86.14% chance that Obama will "break" Mitt Romney in mind, body, and spirit, leaving him a gibbering lunatic.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

My model suggests that not only will Ann Romney throw herself at President Obama, but there is a 74.44% chance Paul Ryan will do likewise.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

My model foresees an 81.89% chance that Mitt Romney will be a homeless bum by October 20th, wearing nothing but scraps and dog urine.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

There is still a 42.93% chance that Barack Obama will reveal that he is, in fact, The Batman. It is unclear how this may affect the race.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Gaming out various Obama-Is-The-Batman scenarios, I see this playing especially strong in post-industrial states, like Michigan.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

As my model already shows Obama with a healthy 163% chance of winning Michigan, the Batman Scenario is less about the race than Two-Face.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

My model indicates, with a not-to-be-discounted 17.33% chance, that Mitt Romney actually is Two-Face.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Florida has moved slightly towards Romney. He now has a 0.0034% chance of winning the Sunshine State.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

However, my model also suggests a 85.67% chance the citizenry will rise up in arms against him, like he's Top-Hat Frankenstein.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

There are permutations of the Two Face/Top-Hat Frankenstein scenarios but they are not easily discussed in a Twitter timeline.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Assuming Romney is not set afire by outraged townsfolk in Florida, he hold steady with a 0.0015% chance of winning Virginia.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Virginia is especially difficult for Romney, due to the presence on the ballot of a 3rd party candidate who cuts into his base.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

That candidate is Lord Humngus from Mad Max 2, who outpolls Romney 4 to 1 on the question of "better reflects my values."

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Assuming Mitt Romney can neutralize the threat from the Ayatollah of Rocknrollah, his odds improve to 0.0041% .

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Oh, my! We are gasping for breath. Other Twitter users can’t resist joining in the parody fun.

@AceofSpadesHQ You sure of your numbers: I get .001457%??

— Morecowbell (@themorecowbell) October 9, 2012

Nate Silver gave 87% odds to Obama on debate night. Now down to 74%. More lib pseudoscience. James Hansen should hire him to make up facts

— Don Surber (@donsurber) October 9, 2012

Rasmussen: Tied. But don't worry, libs, Nate Silver gives The Won a 74% chance of winning. http://t.co/bnwNSzKL

— Don Surber (@donsurber) October 9, 2012

Nate Silver's "model" has just been admitted to the Betty Ford Clinic.

— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) October 9, 2012

We plugged our polling data into Nate Sliver's forecasting model and it gives President Obama a 172% chance of winning.

— PartisanPolicyPolls (@PPPPolling) September 21, 2012

Ace of Spades continues with his trouncing.

I am sure of my numbers. I have a model. @themorecowbell

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

In sum, the model predicts that Mitt Romney has actually decreased his chances of winning this election by actually running.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Many people have a low, but real, chance of becoming president; Romney has actually reduced his odds below, say, Dustin "Screech" Diamond's.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Bonus points for the “Saved by the Bell” reference!

My model still allows for a 0.0056% chance that Dustin "Screech" Diamond will be the next President. He has gained on Romney. — and, scene

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

via @johnekdahl, Gallup LV polling begins, with Romney up 2, 49-47 http://t.co/eN4nuRUn

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Including the lead in Gallup, The Model has now moved Romney up from a 0.00022% chance of victory to 0.00023%.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Although Obama is down in virtually every post-debate poll, The Model still has him with a 99.0073% chance of victory, based on…

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

…a detailed analysis of fundamentals within individual states, and who I'd most like to play bumper pool with.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

Fear not. Even if Obama loses (a 0.0023% chance), The Model predicts that he will easily cover the spread.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

.@philipaklein @daveweigel The Model suggests only a 0.0739% chance that this is the right time to panic.

— iLoveScienceSexually (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 9, 2012

But it is the right time to giggle-swoon. Keep the hits coming, Twitter. We are sure you will have ample opportunity as the hilarious meltdowns and freak-outs continue.

Bless their hearts.

Read more: http://twitchy.com/2012/10/09/nate-silvers-model-predicts-only-25-chance-of-romney-victory-twitter-predicts-100-chance-of-mockery/

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